A momentous meeting in Singapore. A trio of top central bank meetings. Simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and foreign powers. Megamerger discussions.
This inflation reading could very well set the tone ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, which it’s widely expected to result in an interest rate hike announcement Wednesday. Economists surveyed by FactSet are expecting a month-over-month change in core CPI of 0.2 percent, and year-over-year change of 2.2 percent.
Specifically, I’m watching the “core” CPI reading most closely because it excludes the often-volatile food and energy prices. In May, the CPI reading reflected the slowest month-over-month growth in five months. This aligned with more-dovish-than-expected rhetoric from the Fed, which has wanted to avoid an extreme divergence in policy from other central banks.
At the same time, the European Central Bank is now expected to consider a more hawkish shift in policy.
Ultimately, a hot CPI read on Tuesday could reinvigorate a hawkish tone; this would send the U.S. dollar higher for at least two sessions before the ECB steps up to the plate on Thursday.
All in all, it’s going to be an exciting week.