The escalating trade conflict between the U.S. and many of its economic partners “can get out of control very quickly” and “really hamper global growth,” said Raghuram Rajan, a finance professor at the Chicago Booth School of Business.
That’s especially so when “too many countries are led by too many strong leaders,” who would find it hard to back down from their tough stance, he added.
As it is, President Donald Trump’s administration has turned threats into actions by slapping tariffs on aluminium and steel imports from Canada, Mexico and Europe. All three have retaliated and are challenging the U.S. decision at the World Trade Organization.
Negotiations between the U.S. and China — the two largest economies in the world — also appeared to reach a standstill. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross left China without a deal that the U.S. had hoped could narrow the two country’s trade balances.
Such tensions, if prolonged and deepened in the coming months, are some of the biggest risks to the current global growth momentum, Rajan told CNBC: “That could really hamper the global economy.”
“I think the U.S. administration, at this point, is rejecting that global system of rules-based trade and is moving towards one where it thinks it can exercise its own power in order to get a better deal from others,” he said. “There’s a reason why we stayed away from this because there’s a potential for threats to turn into actual bad behavior and I worry that we’re getting closer to that point.”