Nobel laureate Robert Shiller isn’t using midterm election patterns to help construct his latest market forecasts.
this electionas an expression of voter confidence about President Donald Trump. He suggests it’s unwise to use the vote as way to predict economic and market trends.
“This is a very different midterm election,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “There’s a lot of anxiety at this point. A lot of anger. I don’t think this is easily grouped into past midterm elections. So, I think that the history of the market responses to that doesn’t tell us very much.”
Historically, wild swings shake the stock market in the weeks before midterms. Following the elections, the markets are known to calm down on less uncertainty. LPL Financial found the market has surged more than 10 percent, on average, into year-end following midterms since 1950.
However, Shiller prefers to stick to the fundamentals.
“Even if the election is very disturbing, it doesn’t tell us that something very dramatic is going to happen in the stock market,” he said. “The market is almost unforecastable over short intervals of time. And, that’s because it’s not just the level of emotion, it’s the overall narrative that goes along with it.”