Tesla shares have broken down in the middle of their worst pullback ever.
The stock has tumbled nearly 52% from its record high hit in September 2017, its sharpest downturn since the 2010 IPO.
However, history suggests this might lead to a massive short-term rally. The stock roared 90% higher in the two months to April 2016 following a 50% sell-off in the previous 18 months.
Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, says its shares have further to fall before they find a bottom.
“After such damage, you are set up to see these kind of snap-back reflex moves but just given damage to the trend, I think it’s going to be part of a basing process that still needs to materialize. We haven’t seen the base just yet,” Wald said on CNBC’s “Trading Nation ” on Tuesday.
Tesla has been in a tailspin in the past three months, skidding 41% in the worst performance on the Nasdaq 100. Wald now sees two critical levels that could trap Tesla in a range.
“You really saw these losses accelerate on the breach of $ 250. That had been a support level for the stock going back a couple of years. Often, prior support becomes resistance so that’s the stock’s new ceiling,” said Wald. “Tesla back really in the range that it had been in for much of 2014 to 2016, the lower end of that range, $ 180. So that’s going to be the big level to watch over the coming weeks. Let’s see if the stock can hold that.”
At $ 187.02 per share in Wednesday’s premarket, Tesla is less than 4% from touching $ 180, a level it has not seen since November 2016.
Mark Tepper, president of Strategic Wealth Partners, sees headwinds building for Tesla that could keep the stock under pressure for the foreseeable future.
“There’s no positive catalyst in sight,” Tepper said during the same segment. “The problem with this stock is that the narrative has changed, so this thing climbed up to $ 380 a share on hope that [CEO Elon Musk] would change the world. At that time, the narrative was innovation. Now the narrative is survival and they carry completely different multiples. You’re talking like a 75% haircut.”
Waning demand and difficulty hitting delivery numbers could weigh on Tesla, added Tepper, mirroring similar concerns expressed in recent analyst notes from Wedbush, Citi and Morgan Stanley.
Tesla has not responded to a request for comment.