The bond market’s year in decline could round out with some relief.
“What we have on this chart is the potential for a double bottom forming right down here at these lows,” Ciana said on CNBC’s “Futures Now” on Thursday, referring to U.S. 30-Year Treasury bond futures.
Those long bond futures bottomed in early October, and made a higher low earlier this month.
“In fact, [Wednesday’s] price action didn’t break down to a new low to suggest that this isn’t a possibility. We also had a bullish signal occur earlier in October at those lows,” he added. “There’s a possibility that the bond market could establish itself, here provided no new low occurs, and we could see a 3 to 5-point rally in the U.S. long-bond Treasury future.”
Ciana has seen a similar set-up on the 5-year Treasury futures chart. He says a buy signal was triggered when prices bottomed out on Wednesday at October lows before moving higher, suggesting a double-bottom in formation.
“I think the tactical trade here is to be long [5-year U.S. note future] and U.S. Treasury futures. If we make a new low, you’re stopped out but the potential for a rally here from the technical side as well as positioning and seasonals does suggest a bit of a pop,” said Ciana.
However, for the longer term Ciana remains bearish on the bond market. He has a target of 3.45 percent in the 10-year yield and 3.75 percent in the 30-year. The 10-year yield above 3.45 percent would mark its highest level since April 2011.